Beyond Megawatts: MENA’s Next Clean Energy Test Is Integration

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has proven it can build power infrastructure at a speed and scale few regions can match. The harder test is coming next: building electricity systems that can absorb rapidly rising demand, integrate a far more variable generation mix, and keep running when the unexpected happens.
The scale of the challenge is striking. Electricity demand across MENA tripled between 2000 and 2024, rising by more than 1,000 TWh and making the region the third-largest contributor to global demand growth after China and India. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand is projected to rise by a further 50% by 2035, equivalent to the current combined consumption of Germany and Spain [1].
This is not only a population story. Cooling already accounts for nearly half of peak demand and a quarter of annual consumption. Together with desalination, it is expected to drive almost 40% of demand growth to 2035 [1]. A newer driver is now joining them: the digital economy. Global data centre electricity use is expected to more than double to around 945 TWh by 2030, roughly Japan’s entire consumption today, with AI the main driver [2]. As Gulf states position themselves as AI and data centre hubs, a growing share of their load will be large, concentrated and intolerant of interruption.
Supply is changing just as fast. Middle East renewable capacity grew by a record 28.9% in 2025 to 56.4 GW, led by Saudi Arabia [3]. Across MENA, around 16 GW of solar and wind was installed last year, also a record [4].
Put these trends together and the conclusion is clear. MENA does not just need more electricity. It needs a smarter, more flexible and more resilient electricity system.
The grid becomes the strategic asset
For most of the transition, attention has rightly focused on generation. But as variable renewables grow, the network increasingly decides how much of that generation can actually be used.
Investment flows already reflect this. Power-sector investment reached US$44 billion in 2024 and is projected to rise by 50% by 2035, with nearly 40% of it going to grids. There is good reason for this: transmission and distribution losses in the region are currently double the global average [1].
The grid is no longer just the wire between a project and a customer. It is a core strategic asset of the transition. That means more transmission capacity, substations and interconnections, but it also means intelligence. AI-driven forecasting, predictive maintenance, automated fault detection and real-time balancing of solar, storage and demand can extract far more value from every kilometre of existing network. The same technology that is adding load can also help the system carry it.
Storage moves from option to requirement
As solar and wind shares rise, systems must bridge the gap between when power is generated and when it is needed. The region is moving fast: MENA is expected to add around 4 GW, or 16 GWh, of battery storage in 2026 alone, double the amount added in 2025 [4]. Batteries are no longer a niche. They are becoming part of the infrastructure that makes high-renewable systems work.
They are also a resilience asset. Storage close to critical loads can hold a hospital, desalination plant or data centre steady through a disturbance while the wider system recovers. But that only holds if the asset is well designed, safely integrated and performs as specified over its full life. Will it perform as promised, and will it keep doing so safely? Those two questions are where technical due diligence, testing, certification and independent verification become part of the investment case, not a compliance afterthought.
Resilience is now part of the definition of reliability
The events of this year have made the case more forcefully than any forecast could. The regional conflict has put energy systems directly in harm’s way. S&P Global recorded 106 attacks on energy assets in the region in the first half of 2026 alone [5]. Alongside physical risk, security agencies have warned of elevated cyber threats to energy infrastructure [6]. IRENA has drawn the same conclusion, noting that domestic renewables reduce exposure to volatile fuel markets and build systems less vulnerable to international shocks [3].
The lesson is not political. It is an engineering one. A power system’s value is measured not only by how much it generates on a good day, but by how well it absorbs shocks, whether from extreme heat, equipment failure, cyber intrusion or geopolitical disruption. Diversified supply, distributed generation, storage, interconnection, cyber-secure digital controls and spare-equipment strategies are no longer optional extras. They are what reliability means in this region today.
Reliability is the real scorecard
The ultimate measure of MENA’s transition will not be gigawatts installed. It will be whether the lights, the air conditioning and the water supply stay on as demand, complexity and risk all rise.
Efficiency offers a telling example. Air conditioners in the region are less than half as efficient as those in Japan, and upgrading them alone could cut peak demand growth by an amount equal to Iraq’s entire current power capacity [1]. The cheapest and most secure megawatt may be the one the system never has to supply.
This is the essence of the next phase. It is not a race to build generation. It is a system integration challenge, in which generation, grids, storage, efficiency, digitalisation, AI and resilience must be planned together rather than in silos. In practice, that calls for four things:
• Plan grids and storage alongside generation from day one, not after projects are built.
• Treat efficiency as capacity, starting with cooling.
• Use AI and digitalisation to run the system smarter, with cybersecurity designed in.
• Build independent technical confidence across the asset lifecycle, because in tightly coupled systems the risk sits at the interfaces between design, construction, connection and operation.
MENA has already shown the world its ambition. The coming decade will test something different: its ability to turn extraordinary investment into power systems that are reliable, intelligent and resilient by design. That may prove to be the more consequential chapter of the region’s energy transition.
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Ahmed Elbermbali, Director, Power & Utilities and Sustainability Growth
Midle East, Caspian and Africa region (MCA), Bureau Veritas
(Views are my own)
References
1. IEA, The Future of Electricity in the Middle East and North Africa (Sept 2025)
2. IEA, Energy and AI (Apr 2025)
3. IRENA, Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (Mar 2026)
4. BloombergNEF, MENA Clean Energy Market Outlook 2026
5. S&P Global, Energy Security Sentinel: Middle East Conflict (2026)
6. CSIS, Iran Conflict Heightens Cyber Threats to U.S. Energy Infrastructure (2026)

by Ahmed Elbermbali, Director of Power & Utilities and Sustainability Middle East, Caspian Sea and Africa (MCA) region, Bureau Veritas